(Disclaimer: this was written before Xavier upset #13 Creighton on Saturday)
If this was not clear to Xavier fans over the past three seasons, it should be after the last four games: Travis Steele should be fired. Steele has done nothing to bring the program to new heights since he was promoted to head coach after Chris Mack’s departure. In his introductory press conference he promised to bring the program a final four appearance, but his teams have been nowhere close to that. I wonder if Steele realizes that in order to make the final four, the team has to make it into the NCAA tournament first. Steele did not make the tournament in his first season, and although it got cancelled last season, the 2019-2020 team was not slated to make it either. In fact, they might not even get the chance once again this season. After their last four games, their position from tournament lock has fallen to a bubble team.
The main reason for so much disappointment in Steele is the talent he has available to work with. Steele has had many talented players, such as Naji Marshall, Tyrique Jones, Paul Scruggs, and Quentin Goodin, that were still around after Mac left. Xavier has added two or three grad transfers each year as well that contribute. Their 2020 recruiting class was one of the highest in program history, coming in at 24th nationally. With all this talent, Steele should be doing a lot better than not even making NCAA tournament appearances and finishing in the middle of the Big East standings. It appears that Steele and his coaching staff are not developing players well. For example, Paul Scruggs came into Xavier a talented guard, but in his four years, has not shown much improvement. He consistently coughs the ball up and makes big mistakes during crunch time.
The most frustrating part of Steele’s coaching is his subbing decisions. This season Steele has mainly stuck to only playing the starting lineup in the second half. Three of the starters are averaging over 31 minutes per game, and the other two average over 25 minutes a game. Jason Carter, who only averages 6 pointers per game and throws up three pointers that aren’t even close, averages 27 minutes a game, way too much for him. Carter helps out on defense, but not enough to be playing that much. In the past few games, Xavier’s starting five is clearly not working, but Steele makes no attempt to bring in players off the bench to try to provide a spark. The only player he will put in is Adam Kunkle, a grad transfer, who is supposed to be a lights out outside shooter, but has only made 12 three pointers the whole season. In the first half of the Butler game Steele actually put in KyKy Tandy and Daniel Ramsey, and they were a huge momentum shift; Tandy hit a three and Ramsey had a big dunk that turned the game towards Xavier. Despite this, Steele did not put them back in the rest of the game. When asked in his presser afterwards about Tandy, Steele said he was improving but needed to work on rebounding in order to play more. That does not make sense considering Tandy out-rebounded Carter, Odom, and Kunkel, who played significantly more minutes than Tandy. Steele tends to experiment with the lineup in the first half, often putting in the freshman, but as soon as the second half comes he pulls everyone out and sticks to his starting five even if that clearly is not working, like Wednesday night at Providence.
Steele wants to talk about the “Xavier Way” in practice as being a big part of what determines who plays, but if he keeps doing this he will eventually lose his job because of it. It has become increasingly clear that his lineup and rotation patterns are not winning him games. Although some players might be better in practice, this is not first grade basketball, and you need to win games, not hang out participation trophies for playing hard in practice. Although effort in practice is important, at the end of the day winning games matters more.
There seems to be a cycle with Travis Steele’s teams and free throw shooting. During the games Xavier players struggle to hit free throw shots, sometimes costing us games, and afterwards Steele “takes responsibility” for it and promises they will work on it in practice. However, these promises he makes have not been followed. If you compare the data from Chris Mack’s last three seasons and Travis Steele’s first two seasons plus the current season, you can see the free throw shooting percentage has decreased significantly. Mack’s last three teams had an average of 73%, while Steele’s teams average 66% from the line. Last season the team shot a combined 65%, the lowest over the last ten years. A seven percent drop in free throw shooting is not something to brag about, and ultimately has a large impact in games. Steele always preaches that his team needs better free throw shooting, but the numbers show that improvements have not been made.
If Travis Steele does not start to turn things around soon, it is clear that Xavier’s men's basketball team should be searching for their next head coach.
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