As some conference's are already halfway done with their seasons, it's time again for talk of what coaches are on the hot seat. It is clear that in order for a program to succeed, a coach who can rally a team and get them to play their best football is needed. Look no further than Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney to see this in play. There are many current coaches who had lofty expectations for them when they were hired, but have just not lived up to the expectations. In a usual year, there would have likely been a huge coaching carousel, but with all the budget losses every program is facing because of COVID, it will likely be different this year. However, that did not seem to matter much to South Carolina who fired Will Muschamp earlier this week. Muschamp’s Gamecocks were 2-5 so far this season and finished 4-8 last year. Even with a $15 million buyout, South Carolina decided they were done with Muschamp. I do think these buyouts will play a large role in the schools decisions this year because many of the top coaches have huge buyouts, and with all the budget cuts, schools can’t afford to pay a buyout plus the salary of a new coach.
Coaches Definitely on the Hot Seat:
Jim Harbaugh
After Michigan loses yearly to Ohio State and most ranked teams, there is always talk that Jim Harbaugh should be out. However, all of that is usually just media speculation, and the University has always said that they have faith in Harbaugh. However, after starting 1-3 this season, it feels different. Michigan has not just lost three games already, but has been blown out. Harbaugh has failed time and time again to beat ranked teams, and add in this year’s season, it's the icing on the cake. Harbaugh only has one year left of his contract, and it is widely speculated that he will be fired at the end of this season.
Tom Herman
Tom Herman has not done a bad job at Texas during his three and a half seasons, but has yet to live up to the high expectations those around the Longhorn program have. Herman has not been able to find coordinators that work for him, and it seems like he’s rotating in new ones every year. While Texas has had some big wins under him, they have also had very embarrassing losses, and really just don’t seem to be moving forward. Texas consistently has a top 10 recruiting class in the country, but is not consistently a top 10 team. Tom Herman has not been able to make the talent he has perform. Texas has been up and down this season, and are currently 5-2. They had a big win over Oklahoma State, but failed again to beat Oklahoma. If Texas can make it to a decent bowl game, I think Tom Herman’s job will be saved one more year because the athletic department has said they are struggling and likely cannot afford his $15 million buyout.
Chip Kelly
After back to back losing seasons for UCLA, things are not looking good for Chip Kelly. UCLA went 7-17 in Kelly’s first two seasons. Now, in year three, he really needs to put it together. He will have his recruiting class there and now has had time to adjust. If his two losing seasons were at another major college football school, he likely would have been gone after year 2, but at UCLA, things are different. UCLA does not have a huge fan base that really cares about the program. There is not tons of media covering the team and lobbying for Kelly to be done. I think that if Kelly can lead UCLA to a .500 record, or even a little below that, he will definitely be at UCLA again next season.
Lovie Smith
After four seasons with Illinois, Lovie Smith has a record of 15-34. The 2019 season was his most successful one yet, with six wins, an upset win against ranked Wisconsin, and a bowl game appearance, which they lost. Illinois is currently 1-3 this season, and still has games against Nebraska, Ohio State, Northwestern, and Iowa and I highly doubt they will be favored in any of those. If Smith finishes 1-7 this season, I have a hard time believing he will not be fired. His buyout is relatively low, $1 million, so Illinois can probably afford to fire him. However, Illinois is a hard program to recruit to and win at.
Derek Mason
Mason has coached Vanderbilt for six seasons, and after the 2019 season has a 27-47 record and never had a winning season. In those six years, Vanderbilt has been to two bowl games, but lost both of them. So far this season Vanderbilt is 0-3. To Mason’s defense, Vanderbilt is a really hard program to coach at. Recruiting is much tougher because the athletes must meet high academic standards and still have to play in the SEC. The Vanderbilt facilities are not state of the art like many of the other SEC schools, which also does not help recruiting. Over the past few years, the Vanderbilt athletic department has said they stand by and support Mason, which has hushed talks of his firing. I think that COVID may give him a pass for this season, but if he has another bad season next year, Vanderbilt will have no choice but to fire him.
Coaches Whose Seats are Getting Hotter:
Clay Helton
Clay Helton has been leading the Trojans since 2016 and has gone 37-18 since then. Although that record does not seem bad, there was one losing season in there and two more average 7-5 seasons. He won the Rose Bowl during his first season (the epic game against Penn State), but has lost every other bowl game appearance since. Helton has also not kept up with the previously great recruiting classes USC had brought in, as the last two have not been in the top 30 in the country. Helton has managed to save his butt the last two games with last second finishes against Arizona and Arizona State, two not great teams. Helton is lucky that the Pac 12 South is not strong this season and it won’t take much for USC to win it. I think that Helton will not be fired after this season, but if his teams don’t start getting back to consistently winning Pac 12 titles like USC used to, he will be gone pretty soon.
Scott Frost
Frost is only in his third season as the Nebraska head coach, but things are not going the way the folks in Lincoln expected them too. Frost, a Nebraska native, came from UCF, where he turned around the program and led them to an undefeated season and a win in the Peach Bowl against Auburn. Since he did so well at UCF, people thought he would be able to turn Nebraska around quickly, but so far that has not been the case. Nebraska finished 4-8 in his first season and 5-7 in his second, missing a bowl game both times. Nebraska got a much needed win last week against Penn State and will need to carry that momentum into the rest of the season. I think Frost will get a pass this year because of COVID, but if he doesn't get Nebraska to at least a bowl game next season, I think he will be gone.
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