For sports fans big and small, the opening weekend of the NCAA tournament is second to none. Nonstop basketball, from noon to midnight, guaranteed to give major upsets and highlight reel buzzer beaters. Below our some of my thoughts on the first matchups.
Best Game in each region:
South: (6)Creighton vs (11)NC State
Both of these teams are really hard for me to figure out, which makes this such an interesting matchups. Creighton got hot in the second half of the season, and Ryan Kalkbrenner is one of the best field goal shooters in the country and can block well with his height. However, Creighton’s recent blowout loss to Xavier raises some concerns. The metrics love Creighton and they are top 20 in both kenpom and the NET. NC State did not have any bad losses this season and had yet to lose consecutive games until the last weekend of the season. The offense is high scoring which should make this game exciting.
East: (8)Memphis vs (9)FAU
I think this game will be the best of the opening round. Memphis just beat Houston to win the AAC title, and FAU has been among the best non-power conference teams all season. FAU has the most wins in the country and deserved a better seeding. Both teams are on major hot streaks and carry huge momentum into the game. Whoever comes out on top will give Purdue a challenge in the round of 32.
Midwest: (4)Indiana vs (13)Kent State
Kent State is becoming a popular upset pick because the Golden Flashes are strong on both sides of the ball and played Houston and Gonzaga very close on the road. However, people seem to be forgetting that Indiana has one of the best one-two punches in the sport with Trayce Jackson-Davis and Jalen Hood-Schifino. This should be an exciting game Friday night.
OR
(7)Texas A&M vs (10)Penn State
There is a solid argument to be made that Texas A&M was snubbed with the seven seed and should have been higher. Penn State racked up impressive wins on their way to the Big Ten Tournament Championship and are in their first Big Dance since 2011. Penn State guard Jalen Pickett is a triple double threat, but will be facing a tough Texas A&M matchup.
West: (4)Uconn vs (13)Iona
Rick Pitino, who is rumored to be heavily favored for both the Georgetown and St. John’s jobs, will start playing Big East teams as early as this week. UConn has shown potential this season, rising as high as No.2 in the AP poll, but Dan Hurley has yet to win a tournament game during his time as head coach. Iona beat every team in the tournament by over fifteen points, and boasts one of the countries best defenses. UConn will be the toughest team Iona has faced all season.
Team I don’t know what to do with: Duke
Duke is either going to the Final Four or losing in the first round, but I have no idea which one is gonna happen. The Blue Devils are one of the hottest teams in the country, but with four freshman starters, don’t have much experience in March, which has proven to be valuable in recent tournaments. Their first round matchup against Oral Roberts is a huge test. Oral Roberts knows how to be a Cinderella team, and still has Max Abmas on the roster, and he is still one of the top scorers in the country. If Duke can get past Oral Roberts, they have a path to making it far, but they are at risk of falling victim to the 5-12 upset.
The safe picks:
If you’re looking for a few teams that are very safe to pick at least a few games, I would go with Houston, Gonzaga, Kansas, and Marqueete. Houston will get Marcus Stasser back, so their solid starting five will be playing. Kansas is the reigning National Champions, and Bill Self knows how to win in March. Gonzaga has played their best basketball of the season in the past month, and Drew Timme is comfortable with big march moments. Marquette plays efficient team basketball, and appears to be a safe bet to win quite a few games.
Who I’m fading:
Baylor, Virginia, Tennessee, and Miami are all higher ranked seeds that I am going to be fading and not picking to go far. All three teams have been on the downswing as of late, and do not seem poised to make a tournament run. For Tennessee, Rick Barnes has especially struggled in the tournament while head coach in Knoxville.
While I feel confident in my tournament advice now, I am sure after the opening weekend it will all be to waste, which is why the tournament delivers year after year.
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