Although it seems like the season just started, we are only a few weeks out from March. This means tournament talk in full force and teams will be pushing to win as many games as they can to secure their spot. This year has been so different than normal, from the shutdowns to the lack of fans. Each team has played a wide range of games due to the COVID pauses and the differentiating protocols in each conference. Some conferences, like the Big 12, are allowing teams to keep playing even if someone is positive (Texas continued to play while coach Smart was out with the virus), while others, like the Big East, have to shut down just when someone in the program is positive (example: Xavier’s three different pauses). This week the Selection Committee released their first rankings of the top 16 teams. It will be interesting to see how the next few weeks play out and what changes occur in those rankings.
Major StoryLines this Season:
1. What happened to the blue bloods?
Kentucky, Duke, and Michigan State are currently projected to not make the NCAA tournament. Heading into the season Duke was ranked 9th, Kentucky 10th, and Michigan State 13th. This shows how inaccurate the preseason rankings really are. The three usual title contenders records are anything but impressive; none of them good enough for an invitation to the Big Dance. Many experts think the main reason Kentucky and Duke are struggling is due to the COVID crisis. These are two teams who rely heavily on freshmen, and many of these freshmen did not get the usual preseason to get accustomed to college basketball. They also have some of the largest fan bases in the country, and the lack of fans is affecting their play. Another usual blue-blood, Kansas, is still slated to make the tournament, but for the first time in Bill Self’s tenure they will likely be below a four seed. Seeing Kentucky and Duke continue to lose makes me very happy, but I will miss rooting against them every game in the tournament.
2. Can Gonzaga and Baylor stay undefeated?
Gonzaga and Baylor, the preseason and current number one and two, have yet to lose and are on track to both enter the tournament undefeated. Gonzaga will have an easier path than Baylor, as they play in the Mountain West and have already beaten their toughest opponent, BYU, twice. Baylor is playing in the very competitive Big 12, but is currently on a COVID pause. The Big 12 has many good teams, but Baylor has cruised past all of them. Their closest game so far was their eight point win at Texas Tech. The rest of their wins are all by double digits. They have four games left, two against ranked teams, but are projected to win all of them. Anything could happen, but Gonzaga and Baylor have been so dominant this season that it is very likely they both enter the tournament undefeated. The debate over which team should be number one overall has strong arguments for both sides, but the Selection Committee said this week that Gonzaga currently has the edge. They were actually supposed to play each other early in the season, but the game was canceled, which has actually made it fun to see who can stay undefeated the longest.
3. How many teams will the Big 10 get in the Tournament?
The Big 10 Conference is full of loaded teams that have championship contentions. They currently have five ranked teams and many projections have as many as nine Big 10 teams getting into the tournament. Michigan is handily leading the league, but Ohio State, Illinois, and Iowa are top ten teams as well. Michigan had to take a few weeks off, and although they looked rusty in the first half, they were back to their dominant play in the second half at Wisconsin this past weekend. Michigan is not quite at the level of Gonzaga or Baylor, but is clearly the third best team in the country. Ohio State leads the nation in Quad 1 wins and is currently on a six game winning streak. They don’t have one singular star play, but play as a team and have been able to beat people that way. Illinois is led by star Ayo Dosunmo and although they were inconsistent at the beginning of the season, they are starting to put things together and have won five in a row. Iowa has the best player in the country, Luka Garza, and are one of the best offensive teams, but struggle playing defense. The key to beating them is limiting their scoring (which is very hard to do) because they do not play good defense. Teams like Indiana have been able to take advantage of this and take down the Hawkeyes. Michigan is currently on track to win the regular season, but if the conference tournament is played, anyone is capable of winning it. The Big 10 will likely have a lot to celebrate when Selection Sunday comes around and many of their teams are going dancing.
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