The perfect time of the year is upon us. Rivalry weekend in college football brings out the passion that makes the sport so great. You can never count out an underdog in a rivalry game because anything can happen. On top of this, it is feast week in college basketball, the NFL has games on all weekend, AND the world cup is giving us four games a day.
The SEC bias was bright and clear with this week’s edition of the college football playoff rankings. USC won a top-25 battle “on the road”, but yet the LSU team that played a group of five team last weekend was the one rewarded with a fifth place ranking.
It’s clear that if LSU wins out, they will be the first two-loss team in the playoffs. I do not agree with Alabama being ranked above Clemson. Alabama has two losses, and they should be “punished” accordingly.
I also really disagree with the order of LSU, Tennessee, and Alabama. It is clear that recency bias is at play, but the voters should be looking at the team’s resumes as a whole. All three teams have two losses, but Tennessee has wins over both Alabama and LSU. Why are they ranked last of the three (and by a lot) , that makes no sense.
My Playoff Predictions:
Georgia
Ohio State
TCU
USC
My Predictions for this Week:
(19)Tulane at (21)UC: There is a lot on the line in this AAC matchup, with the winner advancing to the championship game. The Bearcats will look to defend their title, but it is going to be hard against a Tulane team that has been the frontrunner of the AAC for much of the season. The Green Wave have the edge in the quarterback battle, and both teams have top 30 defenses. Tulane has looked like the better team all season, and they will punch their ticket to the AAC title game.
Baylor at (24)Texas: Baylor is coming off a gut-wrenching last second field goal loss to TCU, and I think the Bears will be feeling the letdown. Since the Kansas State game is after this one, Texas will still be playing hard for a possible spot in the Big 12 title game. Bijan Robinson should have another strong game, and Baylor will not be able to block him. Texas will win this game but not cover the spread.
NC State at (18)UNC: UNC was still in the hunt to be a dark horse Playoff candidate, but a loss to Georgia Tech last weekend really ruined that chance. Drake May had his worst game of the season, and essentially disinvited himself to New York. The Tar Heels have already locked up their spot in the ACC title game, so I am not sure how much they have to play for. NC State has a gritty defense that locks opponents into a low scoring battle. UNC’s offense will struggle and commit a few turnovers. NC State will win in a lower scoring game.
(3)Michigan at (2)Ohio State: The stakes for THE GAME are at an all-time high. The winner of this game is pretty much a shoe in to make the playoffs and if Michigan wins again, the one sided-ness of the rivalry is completely eliminated. Before the Blake Corum injury I was leaning towards Michigan, but last week showed just how much the offense runs through Corum, and if he’s not full strength Michigan will struggle. Both teams have very good defenses, but CJ Stroud is a better quarterback than JJ McCarthy, which gives the Buckeyes the edge. Ohio State will get revenge for last year at the Horseshoe.
South Carolina at (7)Clemson: I think that South Carolina’s huge upset of Tennessee was more of a one-off than the Gamecocks actually being good. Spencer Rattler was blessed with good play by the football gods for a game, but there is no way that is sustainable. This is the same South Carolina team that lost to Missouri and Florida. USC may be carrying momentum, but Clemson still has plenty to play for. The Tigers need to win out (and some help from others) to make the Playoffs. I think Clemson wins this one pretty easily.
Auburn at (8)Alabama: When it comes to the Iron Bowl, records need to be thrown out. Cadillac Williams has Auburn playing hard, and with Alabama out of the playoff race, the question of how hard the Tide are going to play is raised. However, Alabama has been significantly better at home this season. Auburn will hang around for three quarters and cover the spread, but Alabama will pull away.
(10)Oregon at (22)Oregon State: Oregon is in the Pac 12 Championship game with a win, but Oregon State will give them everything they have. Oregon State has one of the best defenses in the conference, holding four of their last five opponents to under ten points. However, Bo Nix will provide a much tougher challenge. Oregon will win this game on a last minute drive.
Iowa State at (4)TCU: TCU just needs to make it two more weeks without losing to make their first playoff appearance. Luckily for them, Iowa State has a knack for losing one score games this season, currently at 0-6. TCU quarterback Max Duggan has not looked like himself in recent games, so I am interested to see how he plays in this one. Everyone keeps waiting for TCU to slip up, but the Horned Frogs will move one step closer to a playoff appearance.
(9)Tennessee at Vanderbilt: The fact that many are starting to pick Vanderbilt is pretty crazy considering where both teams were just a month ago. However, the Commodores have won three straight SEC games and just need one more win to go bowling. Tennessee not only got beat down by South Carolina, but lost quarterback Hendon Hooker to an ACL injury. The backup, Joe Milton, is a significant step down.
(13)Notre Dame at (5)USC: Notre Dame’s early losses to Marshall and Stanford are all but forgotten by the AP voters and the CFP committee, but this is still the same team. The Irish have a strong defense, but have also gotten very lucky with turnovers, something they won’t easily get from USC. The Trojans are coming off an epic showdown with UCLA in which Caleb Williams cemented himself as a sure-fire Heisman candidate. Notre Dame’s offense is not explosive enough to keep up with USC, who has a CFP berth to play for.
Arkansas at Mizzou: After their win against cupcake New Mexico State, Mizzou only needs to win this last game to guarantee a bowl game. Arkansas is coming off a beat down of Ole Miss, so the Razorbacks are hot. The last two games have been the best of the season for Mizzou quarterback Brady Cook. The Mizzou defense should do enough to limit KJ Jefferson and Arkansas, so that the offense can make this a close game. If Luther Burden is targeted enough the Tigers will win.
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